Policy Insights: What’s landing on the First Minister’s desk?
Published: 7 May 2024
Part One: As the Scottish Parliament elects John Swinney as the new First Minister, we ask Prof. Christopher Carman about the electoral challenges ahead for the SNP.
Now that John Swinney has been elected Scotland’s new First Minister by the Scottish Parliament, we asked key voices from across the University what’s likely to be on his desk on his first days in the job. As the First Minister seeks to establish his vision for government, this two-part Policy Insights piece looks at the policy challenges ahead. In part one, Prof. Christopher Carman walks us through the political landscape that the First Minister is inheriting and the electoral significance of recent developments.
Prof. Christopher Carman, Stevenson Professor of Citizenship at the University of Glasgow.
Lay of the Political Land
One crucial fact that was not likely altered by the political shockwaves that spread out across Holyrood over the past few weeks is that Scottish independence remains the major faultline in Scottish politics. In our recent book, The Referendum that Changed a Nation, the Scottish Election Studies (SES) team demonstrated that the 2014 Independence Referendum (and, to a lesser extent, the 2016 Brexit Referendum) realigned Scottish politics around the independence issue. Nothing that has happened since First Minister Humza Yousaf unceremoniously terminated the Bute House agreement is likely to have shifted that faultline.
However, the reputation for competent government that the SNP carefully built throughout their minority government in 2007-2011 that carried them through to their 2011 majority, the 2014 Independence Referendum and the 2016 Brexit Referendum has been crumbling around the edges for some time. A cursory glance at any of the Scottish papers draws attention to an increasing educational attainment gap, long Scottish NHS waitlists, missed climate targets, among many other policy shortfalls. And, perhaps not unrelated, the SNP seems to be having to pay the 'costs of governing.' The party has been in power (as either a minority or majority government) for 17 years - well more than half of the Scottish Parliament's life. Even a vibrant party has issues sustaining itself for that long.
The "costs of governing" are reflected in the SES data which shows that fewer people think Scotland is going in the right direction, even amongst SNP supporters. Of that group, looking back to January 2022, almost 70% of SNP supporters said they thought Scotland was going in the "right" direction. By February 2024, that figure dropped to about 36%. This malaise is also picked up when the public are asked how they intend to vote. Recent polls show the SNP trailing the Labour Party among voters considering how they will vote in the UK General Election expected in the autumn. When asked how they would vote in Scottish Parliament elections, however, although its support has dropped, the SNP still would emerge as the leading party.
Breathing New Life Into the Party (and Government)?
The question facing the SNP and the wider Scottish Electorate is whether a new party leader and First Minister will be able to breathe new life into the current government in time for it to rebound for the general election - likely in 2024 - and Scottish Parliament election in 2026.
A key challenge - as John Swinney noted in his campaign launch speech - will be uniting a party that many within and outwith the party see as divided. What may be needed is not only a cabinet of all the talents, but also a cabinet of all the various ideological perspectives within the SNP. And that clowder of cats might prove to be rather difficult to herd, especially as the SNP's minority government will still need to look to other parties within the parliament to pass legislation and the crucial budgets.
And then there is the issue that John Swinney will be held responsible in some measure for the party's fortunes in the upcoming General Election. To be sure, if the election is called soon the new leader will be able to rightfully point out that turning around public confidence in the SNP is going to take some time. But an election in the early part of 2024 is far less likely after the thumping the Conservatives took in the English and Welsh local elections on 2 May. Of course Swinney’s government could still argue that it had insufficient time to right the ship if the election is later in the year, but it will be more difficult to convince party members should the party do as poorly as some predict it might.
However, there might be a glimmer of positive news for John Swinney as he takes up leadership of the Independence fight. Throughout the turmoil of Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation, the pitched battles over the Gender Recognition Act (and other policies) under Humza Yousaf’s administration, and the ongoing investigations into the SNP finances, support for independence hasn’t dropped off a cliff. Yes, some polls are showing a wee bit of slippage and we could certainly think that ‘soft’ independence supporters will be giving Labour another look when casting their vote at the election, but there is still a reserve of support for the idea of an independent Scotland that will likely provide a much needed base whenever the general election is called.
That said, so far the parties’ rhetoric around the General Election battle in Scotland has included a strange mixture of reserved issues that are the responsibility of the UK government (immigration, international affairs, the state of the UK economy) and devolved issues that are the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament (education, the Scottish health service, transport - especially ferries). This will make it difficult for the average voter-on-the-street to sort out which policies will likely be affected by the general election outcome and which will not. It may also make it harder for the new First Minister to demonstrate progress on the set of issues over which the contest is being waged… and that people care about when they go to the polls.
The slightly confused hybrid campaign fought on a mélange of reserved and devolved matters may well work in Scottish Labour's favour, capitalising on the public sense that Scotland is heading in the wrong direction. But, will it help Labour in two years’ time at the 2026 Scottish elections, especially if that party controls the Westminster government? That is far more difficult to predict - we likely need to know how the dust settles on the general election first.
Read Part 2: Policy Challenges for the new Cabinet
Listen to Spotlight: Minority Government
First published: 7 May 2024
